AI predicts outcome of human rights cases

An artificial intelligence system has correctly predicted the outcomes of hundreds of cases heard at the European Court of Human Rights,  UCL researchers have claimed. The AI predicted the verdicts to an accuracy of 79%, according to the scientists involved.

AI is increasingly being used in fields such as journalism, law and accountancy, though critics said no AI would be able to understand the nuances of a legal case. The study, which was conducted by researchers at UCL Computer Science, led by Dr Nikolaos Aletras of the Media Futures Research Group, and the universities of Sheffield and Pennsylvania, does not spell an end to lawyers, the researchers said.

"There is a lot of hype about AI but we don't see it replacing judges or lawyers any time soon. What we do think is they'd find it useful for rapidly identifying patterns in cases that lead to certain outcomes," said Dr Nikolaos Aletras. "It could also be a valuable tool for highlighting which cases are most likely to be violations of the European Convention on Human Rights."

The team identified English language datasets for 584 cases related to three articles of the Convention on Human Rights:

• Article 3 (cases involving torture or degrading treatment)
• Article 6 (rights to a fair trial)
• Article 8 (respect for private life)

These were picked both because they represented cases about fundamental rights and because there was a large amount of published data on them. The algorithm looked for patterns in the text and was able to label each case either as a "violation" or "non-violation". To prevent bias and mislearning, the team selected an equal number of violation and non-violation cases for the AI to learn from.

"Ideally, we'd test and refine our algorithm using the applications made to the court rather than the published judgements, but without access to that data we rely on the court-published summaries," said UCL's co-author Dr Vasileios Lampos.

The algorithm tended to get judgements wrong when there were two similar cases - one a violation and one not, suggesting that the platform was not able to detect the finer subtleties of the law. The next stage for the researchers is to test the system with more data.

"There is no reason why it cannot be extended to understand testimonies from witnesses or lawyers' notes," Dr Aletras told the BBC.

The full story is on the BBC website at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37727387 

It is also featured on The Guardian websitehttps://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/24/artificial-intelligence-judge-university-college-london-computer-scientists;

The Telegraph website www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/10/23/artifically-intelligent-judge-developed-which-can-predict-court/;

and The Daily Mail website www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3865238/Computer-predict-Euro-judges-rulings-Scientists-create-program-gave-correct-verdict-three-quarter-cases.html